The Weather Channel Grades Chicago's 2010-2011 Winter an A+

Since we're in the (entertainment) business of grading weathercasters, we thought we'd pass this along. The Weather Channel provided grades for the winter season to date. Chicago was given an A+. If that gives you some sense of civic pride, soak it up! According to TWC, 33 percent of Chicago's average seasonal snowfall has yet to fall.

Time To Catch a Breath

It looks like a relatively uneventful next week or so according to Chicago's finest weathercasters (if you don't count the bitter cold for the next couple of days). Perhaps an appropriate time for winter reflection.

What do you think of the winter so far? Weigh in with the poll question to the right.

The Blizzard of 2011: The Clockwork Storm

There were two impressive things about Chicago's just-concluded snow "event." One, the obvious: it was massive and historical (#3 for the record books). And two, it was about as accurately predicted a snowstorm as you're likely to see. While many are cynical of the weather media, feeling they're prone to sensational claims, this storm left Chicago's weather mavens looking pretty good.

The official total snowfall in Chicago was 20.2 inches at O'Hare and 20.9 inches at Midway. Here are the grades assigned by TCF (grading criteria can be found here):

WGN: A+ We're not easy graders, and an A+ is very hard to come by. That said, Tom Skilling and company nailed this storm from beginning to end. As of Sunday night, WGN noted that Chicago was in the 20-25" band. The final snowfall tally fell squarely in the middle of their final 16-24" range.

NWS: A The National Weather Service followed closely on WGN's heels, but was a bit less aggressive in going with the monumental amounts of snow that eventually fell.

WLS: A There's little fault to be found in WLS's performance.

WMAQ: A- Like most others, WMAQ ultimately established the proper snow range for the storm. However, on Monday night, they forecast "just" 10 to 15 inches, which was less than what actually fell.

WBBM: B+ Maybe we're being a little picky here, but WBBM was actually a little low in its snowfall estimates, with a final pre-storm forecast of 12 to 18 inches.

WFLD: C If there was one weather outlet that stood out, it was WFLD. Their final prediction was for 12-14 inches on the north side, which was considerably below what fell. And on Sunday night, when other outlets were talking about 20-inch snows and the prospect of a record-making event, they saw only "up to 12 inches."

A chronological presentation of the forecasts by weather outlets can be found here.
If you have friends or family in Minneapolis and Boston, or just want to see how groups of forecasters are faring in other cities, check The Minnesota Forecaster (our original forecaster evaluation) and The Boston Forecaster (new). You can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

A final reminder: There's nothing official or overly rigorous about our grades. While it's ultimately subjective, we do our very best to provide an objective assessment of the performance of local weathercasters based on information shared with the public.

Introducing ... the Final Pre-Storm Forecasts

As the first flakes of the blizzard begin to fall, Chicago weather outlets are essentially universal in their predictions of a massive fall of snow. WFLD is on the relative low end with a forecast of 12-14 on the north side of Chicago and 18+ on the south side. WGN has the highest low-range estimate (got that?) of 16 inches. WLS aired a map showing 34.4 inches of snow for Chicago (see graphic) which they claimed wasn't really a prediction (yet they showed it anyway ... hmm...).

As of Tuesday midday, here's the latest and final predictions of what promises to be a memorable -- and quite possibly historical -- winter storm for Chicago:

WMAQ: 1-2 feet
WBBM: 12-18, some 2-foot amounts
WLS: 1-2 feet common, weather graphic showing 34.4
WFLD: 12-14 north side; 18 inches south side
WGN: 16-24 inches
NWS: 15-24 inches

For a progressive forecast showing each forecaster's predictions over time, click here. Follow us on Twitter and give us a thumbs up on Facebook. Remember to check back with us for forecaster grades, something we hope to issue Wednesday night or shortly after the accumulating snow has ended.

Enjoy Mother Nature's generous serving tonight!

This Watched Kettle is Going to Boil

The snowstorm that's been watched for seemingly an eternity is hours away. The storm continues to follow the forecasters' collective road maps with great consistency. As of Tuesday morning, here's the wrap on the seemingly inevitable blizzard:

WMAQ: 1-2 feet
WBBM: 18+
WLS: 1-2 feet
WFLD: 12-18 inches
WGN: 16-24 inches
NWS: 12-20 inches (locally 2 feet)

For a progressive forecast showing each forecaster's predictions over time, click here. Follow us on Twitter and give us a thumbs up on Facebook

Rest Those Muscles -- All Chicago Forecasters See Massive Storm

Approximately 18 hours from onset of the big storm, there's been no change in the forecaster consensus. It's hard to imagine so many forecasters predicting such consistently large snow amounts. If it's a big hype job, it's one heck of a conspiracy. As of Monday night, here were the latest forecasts:

It would appear that a big snow is in the bag... or basket.

WMAQ: 14-20 inches
WBBM: Up to 18 inches
WLS: 10-20 inches
WFLD: 12-18 inches
WGN: 14-22 inches
NWS: 12-20+ inches

For a progressive forecast showing each forecaster's predictions over time, click here. Check back in the morning for the updated group forecast. Follow us on Twitter and like us a lot on Facebook.

Storm Potential Redefined (and so we have a sense of humor)

With all the nearly overwhelming amount of weather graphics you're like seeing or will see in the next 24 hours, here's one with thought might bring a universal smile.

Still All Systems Go According to All Chicago Weather Prognisticators

Based on the evening weather forecasts, there's no reason to believe that a whopper storm won't be ascending on Chicago in 24 hours. Virtually all weather outlets predict no less than a foot of snow. WBBM earmarked Chicago with an 18"+ band of snow, the "highest minimum" forecast. The evening forecast summary is as follows:

WMAQ: 12-18
WBBM:  18+
WLS: 12-18 (some 24" amounts)
WFLD: Up to 12 inches
WGN: 14-22
National Weather Service: 12 to 18+ inches

Click here to see how each weathercaster in Chicago is changing -- or not changing -- the forecast as the next two days approach. After the storm is over on Wednesday, TCF will grade the performance of each forecaster (grading criteria can be found here).

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The NWS Offers a Little CYA

An excerpt from the discussion page of the Chicago office of the National Weather Service issued at 11:34 a.m. Monday:

(Forecaster) model accuracy is not such that it's wise to offer any degree of certainty with respect to snowfall totals. Even with very strong model agreement, it is not uncommon to see forecast storm tracks in models shift by 100 miles or more in as little as 24 hours. Such a shift could result in areas forecast to get 1 to 2 feet of snow ending up dry slotted with drastically lighter accumulation.

Follow TCF on Twitter and Facebook for updates.

Chicago Forecasters Agree: At Least a Foot of Snow for Wednesday

If Chicago doesn't see at least a foot of snow, the weather mavens in town will have some major explaining to do. Approximately 30 hours before the arrival of a talked-up storm, virtually all weather outlets are predicting no less than a foot of snow. WMAQ calls for 18-24 inches while WLS's model printout (shown on TV) calls for 23 inches. As of Monday morning, here's how Chicago's meteorologists see the big storm:

WMAQ: 18-24 inches of snow for Wednesday
WBBM:  More than a foot
WLS: 23 inches
WFLD: Potential for well over a foot
WGN: "The upcoming storm has the potential to rank among the top five worst snow storms to hit the Chicago area since weather records have been taken."
National Weather Service: 12 to 18+ inches

The Chicago Forecaster (TCF) will chronicle the progressive forecasts as the major storm approaches. Click here to see how each weathercaster in Chicago is changing -- or not changing -- the forecast as the next two days approach. After the storm is over on Wednesday, TCF will grade the performance of each forecaster (grading criteria can be found here).

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Chicago Forecasters See Major Snowstorm on the Horizon

As of Sunday afternoon and evening, the picture of a very white Chicago in midweek was coming into sharper focus. Some forecasters think the storm could approach the storm of 1967. The prognisticators were rather unanimous in forecasting at least a foot of snow come Wednesday midday. WGN notes that if a reliable weather model verifies, totals could be 20-25 inches. WLS says that "12 to 18 inches feels conservative" and that the snow will be accompanied by winds of up to 55 mph.


Here's where the Chicago forecasters were predicting as of Sunday evening. An update of the forecasters' forecasts will be provided Monday morning.

The records that may be jeopardy.

WMAQ: Generally a foot of snow for Wednesday.
WBBM:  Could be flirting with record snow if storm track stays on course.
WLS: 12-18 inches from Tuesday pm. into Wednesday "feels conservative."Winds up to 55 mph.
WFLD: Up to 12 inches by midday Wednesday.
WGN: "It's still early, but if storm track is correct, Chicago in 20-25" band.
National Weather Service: 1-3 inches Monday night. From weather discussion: "Total snowfall is currently forecasted for the event in excess of one foot to some locations
receiving up to two feet."

The Chicago Forecaster (TCF) will chronicle the progressive forecasts as the major storm approaches. Click here to see how each weathercaster in Chicago is changing -- or not changing -- the forecast as the next two days approach. After the storm is over on Wednesday, TCF will grade the performance of each forecaster (grading criteria can be found here).

Follow us on Twitter and Facebook

Pull Out the Red Pens ... It's Time to Grade Chicago's Weathercasters

I've always been intrigued by the different snow forecasts that can be produced by different people with access to the same information. This blog will be dedicated to summarizing the forecasts of local Chicago weather forecasters in the days preceding a forecast of snow.