Monday, January 31, 2011

The NWS Offers a Little CYA

An excerpt from the discussion page of the Chicago office of the National Weather Service issued at 11:34 a.m. Monday:

(Forecaster) model accuracy is not such that it's wise to offer any degree of certainty with respect to snowfall totals. Even with very strong model agreement, it is not uncommon to see forecast storm tracks in models shift by 100 miles or more in as little as 24 hours. Such a shift could result in areas forecast to get 1 to 2 feet of snow ending up dry slotted with drastically lighter accumulation.

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