Rest Those Muscles -- All Chicago Forecasters See Massive Storm

Approximately 18 hours from onset of the big storm, there's been no change in the forecaster consensus. It's hard to imagine so many forecasters predicting such consistently large snow amounts. If it's a big hype job, it's one heck of a conspiracy. As of Monday night, here were the latest forecasts:

It would appear that a big snow is in the bag... or basket.

WMAQ: 14-20 inches
WBBM: Up to 18 inches
WLS: 10-20 inches
WFLD: 12-18 inches
WGN: 14-22 inches
NWS: 12-20+ inches

For a progressive forecast showing each forecaster's predictions over time, click here. Check back in the morning for the updated group forecast. Follow us on Twitter and like us a lot on Facebook.

Storm Potential Redefined (and so we have a sense of humor)

With all the nearly overwhelming amount of weather graphics you're like seeing or will see in the next 24 hours, here's one with thought might bring a universal smile.

Still All Systems Go According to All Chicago Weather Prognisticators

Based on the evening weather forecasts, there's no reason to believe that a whopper storm won't be ascending on Chicago in 24 hours. Virtually all weather outlets predict no less than a foot of snow. WBBM earmarked Chicago with an 18"+ band of snow, the "highest minimum" forecast. The evening forecast summary is as follows:

WMAQ: 12-18
WBBM:  18+
WLS: 12-18 (some 24" amounts)
WFLD: Up to 12 inches
WGN: 14-22
National Weather Service: 12 to 18+ inches

Click here to see how each weathercaster in Chicago is changing -- or not changing -- the forecast as the next two days approach. After the storm is over on Wednesday, TCF will grade the performance of each forecaster (grading criteria can be found here).

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The NWS Offers a Little CYA

An excerpt from the discussion page of the Chicago office of the National Weather Service issued at 11:34 a.m. Monday:

(Forecaster) model accuracy is not such that it's wise to offer any degree of certainty with respect to snowfall totals. Even with very strong model agreement, it is not uncommon to see forecast storm tracks in models shift by 100 miles or more in as little as 24 hours. Such a shift could result in areas forecast to get 1 to 2 feet of snow ending up dry slotted with drastically lighter accumulation.

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Chicago Forecasters Agree: At Least a Foot of Snow for Wednesday

If Chicago doesn't see at least a foot of snow, the weather mavens in town will have some major explaining to do. Approximately 30 hours before the arrival of a talked-up storm, virtually all weather outlets are predicting no less than a foot of snow. WMAQ calls for 18-24 inches while WLS's model printout (shown on TV) calls for 23 inches. As of Monday morning, here's how Chicago's meteorologists see the big storm:

WMAQ: 18-24 inches of snow for Wednesday
WBBM:  More than a foot
WLS: 23 inches
WFLD: Potential for well over a foot
WGN: "The upcoming storm has the potential to rank among the top five worst snow storms to hit the Chicago area since weather records have been taken."
National Weather Service: 12 to 18+ inches

The Chicago Forecaster (TCF) will chronicle the progressive forecasts as the major storm approaches. Click here to see how each weathercaster in Chicago is changing -- or not changing -- the forecast as the next two days approach. After the storm is over on Wednesday, TCF will grade the performance of each forecaster (grading criteria can be found here).

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Chicago Forecasters See Major Snowstorm on the Horizon

As of Sunday afternoon and evening, the picture of a very white Chicago in midweek was coming into sharper focus. Some forecasters think the storm could approach the storm of 1967. The prognisticators were rather unanimous in forecasting at least a foot of snow come Wednesday midday. WGN notes that if a reliable weather model verifies, totals could be 20-25 inches. WLS says that "12 to 18 inches feels conservative" and that the snow will be accompanied by winds of up to 55 mph.


Here's where the Chicago forecasters were predicting as of Sunday evening. An update of the forecasters' forecasts will be provided Monday morning.

The records that may be jeopardy.

WMAQ: Generally a foot of snow for Wednesday.
WBBM:  Could be flirting with record snow if storm track stays on course.
WLS: 12-18 inches from Tuesday pm. into Wednesday "feels conservative."Winds up to 55 mph.
WFLD: Up to 12 inches by midday Wednesday.
WGN: "It's still early, but if storm track is correct, Chicago in 20-25" band.
National Weather Service: 1-3 inches Monday night. From weather discussion: "Total snowfall is currently forecasted for the event in excess of one foot to some locations
receiving up to two feet."

The Chicago Forecaster (TCF) will chronicle the progressive forecasts as the major storm approaches. Click here to see how each weathercaster in Chicago is changing -- or not changing -- the forecast as the next two days approach. After the storm is over on Wednesday, TCF will grade the performance of each forecaster (grading criteria can be found here).

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Pull Out the Red Pens ... It's Time to Grade Chicago's Weathercasters

I've always been intrigued by the different snow forecasts that can be produced by different people with access to the same information. This blog will be dedicated to summarizing the forecasts of local Chicago weather forecasters in the days preceding a forecast of snow.